Strait of Hormuz disruption
After U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February 2026, Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack shipping; Dubai crude peaked at $157.66 a barrel and the won broke 1,500 per dollar (KERI). Naphtha eased to $635 after a U.S.–Iran 'end-of-war MOU' in June but was back at $841 on 29 July as ship attacks resumed and the strait was re-closed, and on 3 August KOTRA counted only 9 of 24 GCC coastal ports operating normally. Korea takes 70.7% of its crude imports from the Middle East, and KITA warns the shock is spreading from fuel prices to process-critical inputs such as naphtha, helium and bromine.
How it unfolded.
- 2026-02-28
After the U.S.–Israeli 'Epic Fury' operation began, Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack shipping, sharply raising uncertainty across energy and logistics networks (KERI). source ↗
- 2026-03-23
The won weakens to 1,517.3 per dollar intraday, its weakest level since 2009 (KERI Focus). source ↗
- 2026-05-11
Seven Korean tankers carrying 14 million barrels of crude, about five days of Korean consumption, remain stranded near the strait (Asia Economy). source ↗
- 2026-06
A U.S.–Iran 'end-of-war MOU' is signed and naphtha eases to $635 (KOTRA). source ↗
- 2026-08-03
KOTRA's fourth post-Middle East task force: renewed Iranian ship attacks and a re-closure of the strait; naphtha back at $841 (29 July); only 9 of 24 GCC coastal ports operating normally. source ↗
- 2026-09-23
Korea adopts its first resource-security master plan: cut crude dependence on any single region to 50% or less by 2035, add 20 million barrels of storage by 2030 and stock condensate to keep naphtha output going (SNM News). source ↗
What the markets are saying.
- 05.11 Seven Korean tankers stranded near Hormuz
- 08.03 KOTRA: ship attacks resume and the strait is re-closed
Daily closes, last six months. Source: Yahoo Finance; refreshed with each Global Watch edition (last update Oct 9, 2026, 6:37 AM KST). Indicators only, not investment advice.
Questions for your purchasing and risk teams
- Flag every BOM item that relies on Middle East inputs (naphtha, helium, bromine, LNG, ammonia) and recalculate dependence by where the raw material is produced, not where you buy it.
- Record days of stock and the time needed to switch to an alternative supplier (3–6 months, or longer) for each critical input.
- Check force-majeure clauses and who pays war-risk insurance and freight surcharges in supply and shipping contracts.
- Build 10–14 extra transit days (Cape of Good Hope routing) into production plans and delivery promises.
- Agree a rule for passing oil and currency moves into quotes; KIET estimates manufacturing costs rise about 0.71% for each 10% rise in oil prices.
- Keep public support channels on your emergency contact list: KOTRA's supply-chain help desk and KOBC's maritime early-warning system (pilot due November 2026).
What HELIOS does about it
- The HELIOS engine continuously monitors open sources for Hormuz and Red Sea transits, GCC port status and public notices from bodies such as KOTRA and KOBC.
- Korean-language executive alerts when a re-closure, port shutdown or force-majeure declaration is confirmed.
- Ground Truth field verification, within the law, that alternative suppliers in Korea and Southeast Asia have real, operating plants.
- Vision AI forensic checks of alternative suppliers' certificates of origin, shipping documents and site photos for tampering.
As of 2026-10-05. Figures are as published by each source. Not legal or investment advice.
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