Intelligence,
explained plainly.
The ideas behind HELIOS and Global Watch — what they are, how they work, and where their limits are.
Public information is not intelligence — yet.
The definition
Open-source intelligence is intelligence produced from publicly available information — collected, analysed and delivered in time to answer a specific question for a specific reader.
The hard part
Finding public information is easy. Knowing which of it is true, current and relevant is the work: sourcing, cross-checking, grading and saying how sure you are.
Where HELIOS adds
We pair open sources with physical signals (ships, aircraft, heat from orbit) and, where it matters, with people on the ground.
Some facts can only be checked in person.
Ground truth is information confirmed by direct observation. In supply chains it answers questions documents cannot: does this factory exist, is the line running, is the warehouse full or empty?
Late-night pizza, the internet's crisis tea leaves.
The idea is decades old: when people at the Pentagon work through the night, nearby pizza places get busy. Stories of order surges before major operations around 1990–91 have been retold in the press ever since. Today, public trackers read Google Maps 'Popular Times' for stores near the Pentagon and compare each one with its usual level for that day and hour.
What makes it fun
- Several stores busy at once, late at night local time
- Which stores run hot from one edition to the next
- Two trackers reading the same night differently
Why it misleads
- Weekends, sports, promotions and meal peaks
- Closures and data gaps in 'Popular Times'
- The Pentagon has its own food options and officials have dismissed the theory
How HELIOS shows it
- Two trackers read at the same moment and compared
- Shown in a labelled side panel, with no Admiralty grade
- Never used in the threat level or any judgment
A five-step scale borrowed from DEFCON.
Trackers summarise store activity as a DOUGHCON level. Exact thresholds differ between trackers — which is one reason HELIOS compares two of them.
| Level | Name | Typical meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Normal | Activity in line with the usual pattern for that day and hour. |
| 4 | Watch | Isolated deviations, usually explained by meal times or local events. |
| 3 | Elevated | Several stores above their usual level at the same time. |
| 2 | High | Multiple anomalies, especially late at night local time. |
| 1 | Maximum | Sustained, unusual late-night surges across stores. |
How to read a HELIOS item in five seconds.
The grade
Letter = how reliable the source is (A best, F unknown). Number = how credible this piece of information is (1 confirmed, 6 unknown).
The likelihood
'Likely (55–80%)' is a calibrated judgment about the future or the unknown — not a statement of fact.
The confidence
How solid the evidence behind the judgment is. A likely event can still carry low confidence.
Why a photo is not proof.
Edited images, recycled photos and AI-generated pictures circulate fast in a crisis. Forensic tests look for traces people cannot see: uneven compression (ELA), a missing or foreign camera-sensor fingerprint (PRNU), and the statistical artefacts of generative models.
Common questions
What is OSINT?
What is the Pentagon Pizza Index?
Can the Pizza Index predict military action?
What does a grade like B2 mean?
Why do your judgments include percentages?
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