Our calls, graded.
Misses included.

UKMTO reports at least three merchant vessels struck in or near the Strait of Hormuz in incidents occurring Oct 6–12

We said: Likely (55–80%) · confidence Moderate

Criterion Resolves yes if UKMTO advisories describe at least three incidents dated Oct 6 00:00 to Oct 12 23:59 UTC in which a merchant vessel was actually hit by a projectile, drone, mine or similar weapon in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Near-miss explosions, approaches and radio warnings do not count; late advisories published by Oct 14 count if the incident date falls in the window. Sources: UKMTO advisories, Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

The federal offshore regulator reports at least 50% of current Gulf of Mexico oil production shut in on a single day through Oct 12

We said: Unlikely (20–45%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if any daily shut-in statistic published between Oct 7 and Oct 12 by the federal offshore regulator (identified by Reuters as the Marine Minerals Administration) shows 50% or more of current Gulf of Mexico oil production shut in. Sources: the regulator's daily shut-in statistics, Reuters and Bloomberg reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Hurricane Isaias makes its first U.S. landfall as a Category 2 or stronger hurricane

We said: Unlikely (20–45%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if the National Hurricane Center advisory, tropical cyclone update or landfall statement issued for Isaias's first U.S. landfall gives maximum sustained winds of at least 96 mph (83 kt, Category 2). Resolves no if landfall occurs at lower intensity or Isaias does not make U.S. landfall by Oct 12; later post-season revisions do not count. Sources: NHC advisories and tropical cyclone updates, AP and Reuters reporting.

North Korea launches at least one ballistic missile between Oct 6 and Oct 15 (KST)

We said: Unlikely (20–45%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff or Japan's Defense Ministry announces a North Korean ballistic missile launch (including large-caliber rocket artillery the JCS classifies as ballistic) dated Oct 6–15 KST. Cruise missiles or artillery fire alone do not count. Sources: JCS notices, Japan Defense Ministry releases, Yonhap and Reuters reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Iran's government formally announces by Oct 19 that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to commercial shipping

We said: Very unlikely (05–20%) · confidence Moderate

Criterion Resolves yes if an official Iranian government announcement (presidency, foreign ministry, Supreme National Security Council or parliament speaker) declares the strait reopened to commercial vessels without nationality restrictions. Partial measures limited to certain countries or ships, and conditional offers, do not count. Sources: Reuters and AP reporting of the Iranian announcement.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Asia desk original (Korean)

후티가 10/7~10/20에 사우디 영토 안의 공항·에너지·군사 시설을 새로 공격했다고 공식 주장한다

We said: 가능성 높음 (55~80%) · confidence 낮음

Criterion 후티 군사 대변인 또는 후티 측 매체(알마시라)가 10/7 00:00~10/20 23:59 UTC에 일어난 사우디 영토 내 공항·에너지 시설·군사 시설 공격을 주장하고, 이를 로이터·AP·알자지라 중 한 곳 이상이 보도하면 '일어남'. 10/6 이전 공격에 대한 재주장, 사우디 국경 밖 표적, 선박 공격만 있는 경우는 제외. 확인 출처: 로이터·AP·알자지라 보도.

Ukraine's air force reports a single Russian attack involving at least 40 missiles between Oct 8 and Oct 21 (Kyiv time)

We said: Likely (55–80%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if Ukraine's air force reports that Russia launched at least 40 missiles (ballistic, cruise and hypersonic combined; drones excluded) in a single overnight or daytime attack dated Oct 8 00:00 to Oct 21 23:59 Kyiv time. The count is of missiles launched, not shot down, and separate attacks are not added together. Sources: Ukrainian Air Force statements, Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Saudi authorities announce that a Houthi missile or drone caused casualties or damage at a Saudi airport or oil and gas facility between Oct 8 and Oct 21

We said: Likely (55–80%) · confidence Moderate

Criterion Resolves yes if the Saudi government (civil aviation authority, defense ministry, coalition spokesman or SPA) announces that a Houthi missile or drone, including debris, struck a Saudi airport or oil and gas facility and caused casualties or physical damage in an incident dated Oct 8 00:00 to Oct 21 23:59 Riyadh time. Interceptions without damage and Houthi claims alone do not count. Sources: Saudi government statements, Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

The Fed raises the federal funds target range at its Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting

We said: Unlikely (20–45%) · confidence Moderate

Criterion Resolves yes if the FOMC statement released Oct 28 raises the federal funds target range; a hold or a cut resolves no. Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (federalreserve.gov), Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

The FOMC raises the federal funds target range at the meeting ending Oct 28

We said: Very unlikely (05–20%) · confidence Moderate

Criterion Resolves yes if the FOMC statement issued Oct 28 (ET) raises the federal funds target range from its current level; an intermeeting hike announced by Oct 28 also counts. A hold or a cut resolves no. Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Asia desk original (Korean)

합참이 10/9~10/31(한국시각)에 일어난 북한의 탄도미사일 발사를 발표한다

We said: 가능성 높음 (55~80%) · confidence 낮음

Criterion 발사 시각이 10/9 00:00~10/31 23:59(한국시각)이고, 북한이 탄도미사일(극초음속·잠수함발사 포함)을 1발 이상 쐈다고 합참이 발표하면 '일어남'. 합참이 탄도미사일로 분류하지 않은 순항미사일·방사포·위성 발사체와 북한 매체의 일방 주장은 제외한다. 확인 출처: 합참 발표, 연합뉴스·로이터·AP 보도.

Bulgaria or Romania reports a merchant vessel struck by a drone or missile inside its exclusive economic zone in an incident occurring Oct 7–31

We said: Likely (55–80%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if the Bulgarian or Romanian government, navy or maritime administration says a merchant vessel was hit by an aerial or sea drone or a missile inside that country's exclusive economic zone or territorial waters in an incident dated Oct 7 00:00 to Oct 31 23:59 UTC. Mine strikes, falling debris and strikes in Ukrainian ports or waters do not count. Sources: Bulgarian or Romanian government statements, Reuters and AFP reporting.

U.S. forces strike a target on Iranian territory, including its islands, between Oct 8 and Nov 3 (ET)

We said: Unlikely (20–45%) · confidence Low

Criterion Resolves yes if, between Oct 8 00:00 and Nov 3 23:59 ET, CENTCOM, the Pentagon or the White House announces, or Reuters or AP reports citing U.S. officials, that U.S. aircraft, missiles or drones struck a target on Iran's mainland or on an Iranian island. Attacks on vessels at sea, interceptions, cyber operations and Israel-only strikes do not count. Sources: CENTCOM statements, Reuters and AP reporting.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.

Asia desk original (Korean)

한국 정부가 경유·휘발유·항공유 중 하나 이상을 대러 수출 금지 또는 상황허가 대상 품목에 새로 넣는다고 발표한다

We said: 가능성 매우 낮음 (05~20%) · confidence 낮음

Criterion 2026-11-30까지 한국 정부가 공식 보도자료나 고시 개정으로 경유·휘발유·항공유(정제 석유제품) 중 하나 이상을 러시아 대상 수출 금지·상황허가 품목에 추가한다고 발표하면 '일어남'. 기존 제도 안에서의 개별 조사·단속이나 업계 자율 자제 요청만 있으면 제외. 확인 출처: 정부 보도자료·관보 고시, 연합뉴스·로이터 보도.

Restated in later editions — scoring uses the first call.