GLOBAL WATCH
FLASHGulf Coast: Isaias became a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds Thursday afternoon, 62.89% of Gulf of Mexico oil output and 57.35% of gas output…FLASHIran: Trump posted that “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” on Nov 3 while keeping the blockade “in full force…FLASHShipping and sanctions: Treasury designated 17 tankers and 13 companies in Iran's shadow fleet, and UKMTO said in a delayed report that a crude tanke…FLASHMarkets: The Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193.34 as chipmakers slid on a Financial Times report that OpenAI's annualized revenue is $20 billion below earl…FLASHSaudi Arabia: The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait, and falling debris dama…Brent $103.92 ▲+3.71%WTI $91.18 ▲+3.29%Gold $4,158.30 ▲+0.43%Silver $59.43 ▼-1.43%Dow 51,231.64 ▲+0.10%S&P 500 7,765.36 ▼-0.47%Nasdaq 27,193.34 ▼-1.25%U.S. 10Y yield 5.231% ▼-5bp
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ISSUE HUB · UPDATED WITH EVERY EDITION

Six pressures on
Korean and Asian supply chains.

Dated facts with sources, a checklist for your purchasing and risk teams, and the market indicators that move with each issue.

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East Asia at night · Black Marble 2016, VIIRS (Suomi NPP) · NASA GIBS
ISSUES

What is changing, and what to check.

As of 2026-10-05. Each page lists its sources.

HORMUZ

Strait of Hormuz disruption

After the strait closed on 28 Feb, Dubai crude peaked at $157.66 and only 9 of 24 GCC ports were operating normally by August.

Dubai crude peak (per barrel) · $157.66Middle East share of Korea's crude imports · 70.7%
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UFLPA

Forced labour: UFLPA and the Section 301 tariff

DHS added 43 companies to the UFLPA list (187 in total), and a forced-labour Section 301 tariff of 12.5% applies to Korean goods from 24 Jul.

Entities on the UFLPA Entity List · 187Shipments denied entry under UFLPA (cumulative) · 24,300+ (~$1bn)
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ORIGIN

Origin laundering and transshipment

Detected 'made in Korea' relabelling hit ₩574.7bn in Jan–Jul 2026, a record, and a White House report put Korea in transshipment Tier 1.

Relabelled-as-Korean re-exports detected (Jan–Jul 2026) · ₩574.7bnShare involving Chinese goods · ~78%
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RARE EARTHS

Rare earths and the U.S.–China truce

China's rare-earth controls are paused under a truce now running to 10 Jan 2027; Korea took 79.8% of its rare-earth metals from China.

China share of Korea's rare-earth metal / compound imports · 79.8% / 47.5%Korea's designated critical minerals · 38 → 51
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50% RULE

U.S. export controls: the 50% affiliates rule

The U.S. Affiliates Rule is suspended to 9 Nov 2026 and returns on 10 Nov unless extended; no extension notice has been published.

Ownership threshold (direct or indirect, aggregated) · 50%Scheduled return (absent an extension) · 2026-11-10
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EU DUE DILIGENCE

EU due diligence: CSDDD and the Forced Labour Regulation

The EU forced-labour ban applies from 14 Dec 2027; the narrowed CSDDD applies in full from 26 Jul 2029, and customers' requests flow down to suppliers.

CSDDD scope for non-EU companies (EU net turnover above) · €1.5bnCSDDD full application · 2029-07-26
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MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The numbers that move with these issues.

Six months of daily closes for the indicators our desk watches: Korean equities and the won, energy, metals, semiconductors, rates and volatility.

Korea

KOSPI2026.10.07
6,803.901M ▲+3.4%6M ▲+15.9%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 9,114.55 · Low 5,593.56
KOSDAQ2026.10.07
898.431M ▲+13.7%6M ▼-17.6%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 1,226.18 · Low 644.78
USD/KRW2026.10.08
1,342.481M ▲+0.2%6M ▼-10.4%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 1,554.48 · Low 1,339.17

Energy

Brent crude2026.10.08
$103.921M ▲+2.7%6M ▲+9.7%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $118.03 · Low $71.57
  • 05.11 Seven Korean tankers stranded near Hormuz
  • 08.03 KOTRA: ship attacks resume and the strait is re-closed
WTI crude2026.10.08
$91.181M ▼-5.1%6M ▼-3.4%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $108.66 · Low $68.55
Natural gas (Henry Hub)2026.10.08
$3.1321M ▲+11.0%6M ▲+15.0%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $3.343 · Low $2.523

Metals and materials

Gold2026.10.08
$4,158.301M ▼-6.8%6M ▼-13.0%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $4,879.60 · Low $3,992.10
Copper2026.10.08
$6.5511M ▼-3.7%6M ▲+13.7%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $6.804 · Low $5.748
Aluminium2026.10.08
$3,156.001M ▼-10.1%6M ▼-6.5%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $4,195.00 · Low $3,156.00
Rare-earth equities (REMX ETF, proxy)2026.10.08
$60.581M ▼-20.6%6M ▼-35.0%
2026.04 – 2026.10High $109.53 · Low $60.58

Currencies

USD/CNY2026.10.08
6.691M ▼-0.2%6M ▼-2.4%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 6.86 · Low 6.69
EUR/KRW2026.10.08
1,505.001M ▼-3.3%6M ▼-14.1%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 1,807.42 · Low 1,505.00
  • 06.26 EU publishes Forced Labour Regulation guidelines

Global markets and rates

Philadelphia Semiconductor2026.10.08
12,623.711M ▲+5.8%6M ▲+45.3%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 14,634.72 · Low 8,689.53
  • 09.23 Truce extension announced (Affiliates Rule pause not confirmed)
S&P 5002026.10.08
7,765.361M ▲+1.7%6M ▲+13.8%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 7,818.93 · Low 6,816.89
U.S. 10-year yield2026.10.08
5.23%1M ▲+0.39%p6M ▲+0.94%p
2026.04 – 2026.10High 5.31% · Low 4.25%
VIX (volatility)2026.10.08
15.411M ▼-6.4%6M ▼-26.8%
2026.04 – 2026.10High 22.22 · Low 14.21

Daily closes, last six months. Source: Yahoo Finance; refreshed with each Global Watch edition (last update Oct 9, 2026, 6:37 AM KST). Indicators only, not investment advice.

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