Rare earths and the U.S.–China truce
China sharply widened its rare-earth export controls on 9 October 2025, then, under the U.S.–China deal announced on 1 November 2025, suspended them and agreed to issue general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite for U.S. end users and their suppliers. On 23 September 2026 Treasury Secretary Bessent said truce measures due to lapse on 10 November, including the pause on rare-earth controls, would run to 10 January 2027, yet two days later the White House said rare-earth shortages were still being worked on. Korea sourced 79.8% of its rare-earth metal imports from China in 2024, and on 23 September 2026 the government widened its critical-minerals list from 38 to 51.
How it unfolded.
- 2025-10-09
China announces sweeping new export controls on rare earths and related items. source ↗
- 2025-11-01
The White House announces the deal reached with China in Korea: China suspends the 9 October controls and will issue general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite for U.S. end users and their suppliers. source ↗
- 2026-05-17
Beijing summit: China agrees to address U.S. concerns over shortages of rare earths and critical minerals including yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium, and over limits on selling rare-earth production and processing equipment and technology (White House). source ↗
- 2026-09-23
Treasury Secretary Bessent says truce measures due to lapse on 10 November, including the pause on rare-earth controls, will run to 10 January 2027 (KCIF). source ↗
- 2026-09-23
Korea widens its critical-minerals list from 38 to 51, adding ten rare earths among others, and raises stockpile targets for vulnerable minerals from 180 to up to 365 days (SNM News). source ↗
- 2026-09-25
White House: the two sides are still working on rare-earth and critical-mineral shortages, aiming to return shipments to appropriate levels. source ↗
What the markets are saying.
- 05.17 Beijing summit: China agrees to address rare-earth shortages
- 09.23 Truce measures extended to 10 Jan 2027
Daily closes, last six months. Source: Yahoo Finance; refreshed with each Global Watch edition (last update Oct 9, 2026, 6:37 AM KST). Indicators only, not investment advice.
Questions for your purchasing and risk teams
- Identify parts that contain rare-earth permanent magnets (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, samarium) or gallium, germanium, antimony or graphite.
- Record China dependence, days of stock and the time needed to qualify a non-Chinese source for each item.
- Prepare responses for both outcomes at the 10 January 2027 truce deadline: controls return, or the pause is extended.
- List the products and customers that would be hit if China reinstates its extraterritorial controls (announced October 2025, now suspended), which can reach foreign products made with Chinese rare earths.
- Check regularly whether your Chinese suppliers hold export licenses and how long approvals take.
- Review whether government stockpile and support schemes can help, now that the critical-minerals list has grown to 51 and stockpile targets reach up to 365 days.
What HELIOS does about it
- Continuous monitoring of MOFCOM notices, U.S.–China talks and Korean critical-minerals policy, with Korean-language executive alerts around the January 2027 deadline.
- Ownership matching of rare-earth magnet and material suppliers against U.S. sanctions and export-control lists.
- Ground Truth field verification, within the law, of non-Chinese alternative suppliers, for example in Southeast Asia.
- Vision AI forensic checks of alternative suppliers' origin and composition documents.
As of 2026-10-05. Figures are as published by each source. Not legal or investment advice.
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