$Markets
U.S. 10Y yield
4.988%
▲ +4bp
Collected Sat, Oct 24 05:15 ET · each tile shows its quote time
Green = up, red = down (U.S. convention). Hover a tile for its source.
GGeopolitics & securityTop 2B1
GEO-02Trump 'We
Trump: 'We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree'; Saudi coalition downs a Houthi ballistic missile over Riyadh
Talking about the Iran war on Friday, Oct 23, President Trump said, 'We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree,' adding, 'If they're smart, they'll just say, let's get down to business. But, you know, I doubt they'll do that' (Jerusalem Post, Ynet, Business Today). Epic Fury is the name of the U.S. campaign against Iran that began Feb. 28. Ynet reported the White House had pledged on Oct 22 not to resume attacks before the Nov. 3 midterms, and the Jerusalem Post cited a New York Times report that U.S. and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for short, intense strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, nuclear sites and weapons after the election. The War Zone noted the State Department on Oct 21 ordered non-emergency U.S. government employees and their families out of Saudi Arabia, citing Houthi attacks. Early Saturday, coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said, 'Air defences intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile launched by the Houthi terrorist militia towards Riyadh,' and said a drone was also downed over the Eastern Province; two explosions were heard in the capital and an early-warning alert went out (The Business Standard, Bernama/Anadolu, Yahoo News). An unnamed Iranian official warned that 'if Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines… from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones' (Business Today).
Analytic judgmentThe president paired the strike talk with an opening for a deal, and reports of a pre-midterm pledge not to resume attacks sit alongside reports of post-election strike plans, so it is unlikely that U.S. forces strike a target on Iranian territory by Nov 3, 2026.
Likelihood Unlikely (20–45%)Confidence Moderate
Scored callDue 2026-11-03 · Resolves yes if, between Oct 8 00:00 and Nov 3 23:59 ET, CENTCOM, the Pentagon or the White House announces, or Reuters or AP reports citing U.S. officials, that U.S. aircraft, missiles or drones struck a target on Iran's mainland or on an Iranian island. Attacks on vessels at sea, interceptions, cyber operations and Israel-only strikes do not count. Sources: CENTCOM statements, Reuters and AP reporting.
Scorecard → - Indicators to watch · CENTCOM or Pentagon announcements on Iran and any White House deadline for talks; further Houthi fire at Riyadh and Saudi intercepts; concrete Iranian moves against Gulf undersea cables or U.S. bases; timing of additional U.S. carrier deployments to the region
GGeopolitics & securityTop 5B2
GEO-05Both militaries
Both militaries confirm the Oleshky truce starts early Oct 27; Zelenskiy says U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators will meet in Abu Dhabi in early November
Russia's chief of general staff, Valery Gerasimov, said his forces would halt fire from 4 a.m. local time on Oct 27, and Ukraine's General Staff said it would observe the truce from the same moment (3 a.m. Kyiv time), settling the start date after the White House had cited Oct 29 (The Moscow Times, Kyiv Independent). The truce is meant to let humanitarian aid into Oleshky, evacuate civilians through a designated corridor to the destination of their choice in Russia or Ukraine, and clear mines; it was negotiated by Ukraine's human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova (Kyiv Independent). Zelenskiy said Oct 23 that negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the United States had agreed to meet at a technical level in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, 'and as early as possible,' and that he had spoken with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff after their meeting with Vladimir Putin earlier in the week. He said a similar meeting expected in October never materialized, blaming Russia, and said any deal would need strong security guarantees and 10 years of funding for Ukraine's army (Business Recorder/Reuters, The Moscow Times). The Moscow Times quoted a U.S. official as saying the next round could come in a couple of weeks in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland. HELIOS found no Kremlin confirmation of the meeting during the collection window.
Analytic judgmentZelenskiy has announced an agreed technical-level meeting in Abu Dhabi and the U.S. envoys briefed Kyiv after seeing Putin, but the Kremlin has not confirmed and an October round already fell through, so it is likely that official Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. delegations hold an in-person trilateral meeting by Nov 30, 2026.
Likelihood Likely (55–80%)Confidence Moderate
Scored callDue 2026-11-30 · Resolves yes if, between Oct 22 00:00 and Nov 30 23:59 UTC, official delegations of Russia, Ukraine and the United States meet face to face in a single three-way session on ending the war, including technical-level talks, as confirmed by the Kremlin, Ukraine's presidential office, the White House or the State Department, or as reported by Reuters or AP. Separate bilateral meetings, video or phone calls, contacts limited to prisoner exchanges, and announcements of planned talks do not count. Sources: Kremlin, Ukrainian presidential office, White House and State Department statements, Reuters and AP reporting.
Scorecard → - Indicators to watch · Whether the truce holds from early Oct 27 and aid convoys and demining begin; the number of civilians evacuated from Oleshky; Kremlin confirmation of the Abu Dhabi talks and named delegations; Black Sea attacks on merchant ships; the scale of Russian drone raids
