Russia launched 153 drones and an unspecified number of cruise missiles at Ukraine overnight into Sunday, Oct 25, and Ukraine's air force said 119 drones were shot down or suppressed, with impacts at 15 locations (ABC News). At least four people were killed and 22 injured in the Dnipropetrovsk region, six were injured in Vinnytsia and four in Kharkiv, three of them emergency workers; targets included residential buildings, a hypermarket, thermal power plants, substations, coal mines and grain storage facilities (ABC News). 'We need to unblock the already agreed-upon deliveries of interceptors for Patriot systems,' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. In an ABC News interview reported Oct 24, he said Ukraine has received only 24 Patriot interceptors from the U.S. over the past three months, while it needs an average of about 350 a month (Interfax-Ukraine, ABC News). ABC News said the squeeze on Patriot batteries and interceptors has been made worse by the war with Iran, in which U.S. and allied forces across the Middle East have expended large numbers of interceptors. Russia's Defense Ministry said it intercepted more than 532 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions, Crimea and the Black Sea; the claim has not been independently verified.

• Indicators to watch · Pentagon or State Department statements on Patriot deliveries to Ukraine; PAC-3 production and allocation announcements; further Russian strikes on Ukraine's grid as winter approaches; any Kremlin or Kyiv statement on an energy truce

• B2Bank of Israel pushes back on Netanyahu's idea of using crypto to shield the economy from sanctionsNetanyahu said in a TV interview that 'there could be sanctions, and sanctions on banks so you need to set up a bypass economy,' and answered 'very true' when asked if he meant cryptocurrency; the Bank of Israel said 'crypto currencies cannot serve as a route to bypass sanctions,' and more than 100 economists signed a letter of alarm ahead of Tuesday's election (Reuters).
• C2Brazil's runoff count had barely begun when the window closedWith 0.25% of polling stations counted at 4:06 p.m. ET, Lula had 57.66% to Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro's 42.34% in the electoral court's tally, and the court expected results around 8 p.m. ET, The Rio Times reported. The early numbers say little about the outcome.

• —Still no JCS confirmation of North Korea's promised loudspeaker broadcastsHELIOS again found no Joint Chiefs of Staff or Defense Ministry confirmation that North Korea has switched on the border loudspeakers Kim Yo Jong said on Oct 22 would be on standby within days. No notable activity confirmed.

U.S. Impact Assessment

• Energy and fuel pricesBrent ended the week at $111.70 and WTI at $103.27 in the collected data. With Trump weighing whether to 'finish it off' and the Houthis claiming hits on Aramco's Yanbu facilities, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline, refiners, airlines and fleet operators should be ready for sharp moves when futures reopen Sunday evening and should watch for any Aramco notice on those sites. CENTCOM's mine-clearing claims help shipping sentiment, but Iran's conditions for reopening Hormuz mean war-risk premiums are unlikely to ease soon.
• Air and missile defense supplyZelenskyy's figure of 24 Patriot interceptors in three months against a need of about 350 a month shows how the Iran war is draining the same inventories Ukraine relies on. Prime contractors and suppliers in the PAC-3 and air-defense chain should expect continued pressure from Congress and allies to speed output and clarify allocation, and planners should assume tight interceptor availability for any new commitments.
• People and operations in Saudi Arabia and the GulfRiyadh's airport is open, but most flights were canceled on day one, the Houthis call it a military target and the U.S. has cut embassy staff in the kingdom. Companies with staff in Saudi Arabia should confirm flights right before departure and keep evacuation plans current, since renewed U.S. strikes on Iran could close Gulf airspace on short notice.
• Hosted trading infrastructure and customer dataThe GMO breach shows how one compromised hosting service can turn stored brokerage logins into unauthorized trades across dozens of firms; U.S. brokers and fintechs whose customers run trading bots on third-party servers should push credential resets, enforce multifactor authentication and watch for bursts of automated orders. The Southern Co. lawsuit is a reminder that portal breaches now bring litigation risk on top of notification costs.

Edition archiveRSS

• Saturday, Oct 31 · Morning Edition · 05:42 ETAttacks on ships around Hormuz hit a wartime monthly high as Trump says the Iran war will be “wrapped up soon,” Binance finds more entry points behind its $6.3 billion theft, and Seoul weighs stretching its Cheonghae naval unit toward Oman
• Friday, Oct 30 · Evening Edition · 17:44 ETTankers keep getting hit around the Strait of Hormuz as Qatari mediators carry a U.S. letter into Tehran, a tech rout hands the S&P 500 its worst day since June, and the Secret Service joins the hunt for Binance's stolen $6.3 billion
• Friday, Oct 30 · Morning Edition · 05:40 ETA small boat attached explosives to a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Binance was hit by a roughly $6.3 billion hack that blockchain analysts tie to North Korea, and AI-spending worries sent South Korea's KOSPI down 3.48%
• Thursday, Oct 29 · Evening Edition · 17:46 ETIran's Revolutionary Guards say three tankers hit mines on Hormuz's southern route and Houthi missiles are downed over Riyadh, as a Russian drone kills at least 14 at a Dnipro rail station and Florida discloses a student-aid breach that may affect 4.9 million people
• Thursday, Oct 29 · Morning Edition · 05:42 ETNorth Korea fires about 10 short-range ballistic missiles six days after Seoul offered military talks, as DHS says it is working to contain a leak of 40,000-plus employee records and Trump says Vance's Iran outreach was about medical aid, not peace talks
• Wednesday, Oct 28 · Evening Edition · 17:40 ETIran dismisses Qatar's draft deal as 'unacceptable ideas' amid reports that U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms if talks fail, while a leak exposes more than 40,000 DHS employees and the Fed holds with two votes for a hike
• Wednesday, Oct 28 · Morning Edition · 05:36 ETThe U.S. has reportedly told Gulf allies to brace for a short, intense Iran campaign after the Nov 3 midterms as oil rebounds, while three South Korean financial firms, including crypto exchange Bithumb, disclose hacks
• Tuesday, Oct 27 · Evening Edition · 17:39 ETA cyberattack forces ambulance diversions at New Mexico's only Level 1 trauma center, the Houthis claim a missile hit on Saudi Arabia's largest refinery, and Iran threatens 'legal action' against every ship run by Sinokor, the biggest crude carrier through Hormuz
• Tuesday, Oct 27 · Morning Edition · 05:44 ETA local truce takes hold in occupied Oleshky even as Russian missiles hit Kyiv's Southern Bridge and a student dorm, the Houthis fire ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province hours after the Tehran talks, and CISA confirms PHP2Shell is under attack
• Monday, Oct 26 · Evening Edition · 17:45 ETIran and three Mecca pact powers agree to keep talking after a first four-way meeting in Tehran and oil eases, but the Saudi-led coalition widens strikes on Houthi missile sites and North Korea parks self-propelled guns in plain view of the South
• Monday, Oct 26 · Morning Edition · 05:47 ETMediators converge on Tehran and oil eases, but a Houthi missile again targets Riyadh and South Korea reports its first hacking-related customer data leak at an insurer
• Sunday, Oct 25 · Evening Edition · 17:44 ET · CurrentTrump says it's decision time on Iran, 'finish it off' or make a deal, but rules out a strike Sunday, as the Houthis claim a ballistic-missile barrage on Riyadh's newly reopened airport and CENTCOM's commander says Hormuz shipping lanes are clear of mines
• Sunday, Oct 25 · Morning Edition · 05:50 ETTrump says a U.S. strike on Iran could come 'maybe tomorrow' while floating a 'big, beautiful agreement,' as Houthi missiles and drones fly at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait and Musk says SpaceX throttled Ukraine over 'offensive' Starlink use
• Saturday, Oct 24 · Evening Edition · 17:43 ETA U.S. intelligence memo warns Iranian plots against Americans abroad have reached 'advanced stages' as the State Department thins out Gulf embassies, Houthi ballistic missiles fly at Riyadh, Taif and Yanbu, and Ukraine says its Starlink speed caps are gone

Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, flew over the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, Oct 25, in a U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook to observe the operating environment (Defence Industry Europe, The New Arab). According to CENTCOM, U.S. forces have helped Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude since summer and supported more than 3,000 commercial transits over the past six months, and more than 95% of ships have passed safely. CENTCOM said U.S. forces cleared the international shipping lanes of mines laid by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and that the main transit routes are free of mines. 'We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,' Cooper said, adding, 'This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz' (The New Arab, Defence Industry Europe). According to The New Arab, Iran has tied reopening the strait to seven conditions, including lifting the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and easing sanctions on its oil exports, and talks remain stalled. In his Fox News interview the same day, Trump claimed U.S. control of the strait (CBS News). Ynetnews also reported Cooper's visit and the figure of more than 3,000 transits in six months, and The National said he stressed U.S. commitment to Gulf partners and freedom of navigation.

• Indicators to watch · UKMTO and JMIC advisories for Hormuz; any change in Iran's seven conditions and statements by mediators; changes to U.S. enforcement of the blockade of Iranian ports; Gulf war-risk premiums

GMO Internet Group said its Onamae.com Desktop Cloud, a remote-desktop server service that retail FX traders use to run MetaTrader 4 and 5 trading bots around the clock, was breached (Bitcoin.com News, OfficeChai). According to Bitcoin.com News, a customer inquiry alerted GMO on Oct 19, it confirmed malicious software on the servers on Oct 20 and began shutting down the service at 4 a.m. Japan time on Oct 21; up to 26,739 servers were potentially exposed. The intruders used trading credentials stored on the servers to place unauthorized trades, and one account lost about 2.4 million yen through repeated trades in roughly 84 seconds (Bitcoin.com News). A person believed to be behind the intrusion demanded money and threatened more unauthorized orders at more than 70 securities and FX firms in Japan and abroad, data releases and ransomware; GMO refused, saying payment would not guarantee that stolen data would disappear or attacks would stop (Bitcoin.com News, OfficeChai). GMO said it will pay every Desktop Cloud customer a flat 5,000 yen, compensate verified trading losses and has given evidence to police. Nikkei Asia reported that on Oct 24 GMO made an emergency request for the government to adopt 'active cyber defense' and proactively counter the attacks, and in an Oct 25 blog post founder and CEO Masatoshi Kumagai wrote that the internet 'is already starting to break down' as AI-powered attack tools put large-scale hacking within reach of non-specialists (OfficeChai).

• Indicators to watch · Any Japanese government or National Police Agency announcement on active cyber defense; new loss notices from Japan's Financial Services Agency or FX brokers, including U.S.-linked platforms; leaks of stolen data; GMO's findings on the intrusion path

• B2Foreign airlines largely stay out of Riyadh, and the kingdom's flagship investment conference slips to 2027SBS News said many foreign airlines kept their suspensions in place, sharply limiting traffic, and AFP reported that Saudi Arabia's flagship investment conference has been postponed until 2027. SBS said Air India and Emirates appeared on the schedule, but HELIOS could not confirm they flew.
• C2Sri Lanka rescues 40 Iranian sailors from ships described as U.S.-sanctioned tankersAt the request of Iran's embassy, Sri Lanka brought 40 Iranian sailors with medical emergencies ashore at Galle from 19 commercial ships in international waters that local media described as U.S.-sanctioned oil tankers; they returned to Iran early Sunday (gCaptain).

Watchlist next 12–48 hours and beyond

• Sun evening, Oct 25 (ET)
  First oil and equity-futures trading after Trump's 'decision' remarks and the Houthi oil-site claims; Brazil's final runoff count
• Mon, Oct 26
  China's Communist Party plenum opens in Beijing (through Oct 29); Oleshky truce takes effect at 9 p.m. ET (3 a.m. Tuesday in Kyiv)
• Tue, Oct 27
  Israel votes under a full West Bank closure; whether more flights operate at Riyadh
• Wed, Oct 28
  FOMC decision at 2 p.m. ET; SK Hynix third-quarter results
• Thu–Sat, Oct 29–31
  Samsung Electronics results (Oct 29); North Korea's self-declared October deadline for border loudspeakers; ship strikes in the Black Sea and the Gulf
• Tue, Nov 3
  Midterm elections and the deadline on our Iran-strike call

Sources 30

• T
  The NationalTrump has 'a decision to make' on Iran as concerns over renewed strikes deepen
  B
• Y
  YnetnewsTrump rules out Iran strike Sunday as tensions mount across Middle East
  B
• C
  CBS NewsLive Updates: Trump says he's weighing deal with Iran against action to 'finish them off'
  B
• C
  CP24 (AP)Iran says messages are still being passed to the U.S. amid war concerns, and other Mideast news
  B
• T
  The Times of IsraelIran says messages are still being passed to the US amid war concerns
  B
• T
  The New ArabCENTCOM chief flies over Hormuz, says key routes clear of mines
  C
• D
  Defence Industry EuropeU.S. Central Command says Strait of Hormuz shipping routes remain clear of Iranian mines
  C
• R
  RTÉ (Reuters)Houthis say they attacked Riyadh airport after reopening
  B
• T
  The Manila Times (AFP)Flights resume at Riyadh airport as Houthis attack Saudi
  B
• S
  SBS NewsLimited Flights Resume on First Day Back at Riyadh Airport Despite Continuing Houthi Attacks
  B
• A
  ABC Australia (Reuters)Houthis claim 'phases' of attacks on Saudi airports, oil pipelines
  B
• K
  Kuwait Times (KUNA)Yemen condemns Houthi missile attack on Aden airport
  C
• T
  TRT World (Reuters)Serbia's Vucic concedes defeat in parliamentary election
  C
• B
  Bastille Post (AP)Serbia’s strongman leader Vucic concedes defeat to student-led movement in seismic political shift
  B
• N
  NoviniteVucic Concedes Serbia Election Defeat as Student List Claims 135-140 Seats
  C
• A
  ABC NewsUkraine must 'unblock' Patriot missile delivery, Zelenskyy says after deadly strikes
  B
• I
  Interfax-UkraineUkraine receives only 24 Patriot missiles from USA over past three months - Zelenskyy
  B
• H
  Herald EconomyGoldman Sachs, which floated a 12,000 Kospi target, now cuts it by 25% (translated headline)
  B
• i
  investingLiveGoldman Sachs cuts Kospi target 25% to 9,000, still sees over 60% upside
  C
• M
  Money TodayFOMC and Samsung and SK Hynix earnings: can the Kospi weather a week of big events? (translated headline)
  B
• K
  Kitco (Reuters)Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December, nearly all economists say
  B
• N
  Nikkei AsiaJapan net provider GMO seeks 'active cyber defense' from government
  B
• B
  Bitcoin.com NewsHackers Breach GMO Trading Cloud, Putting 26,739 Servers at Risk
  C
• O
  OfficeChaiThe Internet Is Breaking Down, Says Japan's GMO Internet Group CEO After Hackers Hijack Its Cloud Servers To Run Unauthorized FX Trades
  C
• Y
  Yahoo News (Reuters)Netanyahu rebuked for plan to use crypto to bypass economic sanctions
  B
• A
  Asia EconomyLotte's Giftiel hacked, customer personal data leaked (translated headline)
  B
• Y
  Yahoo News (WSB-TV)Georgia Power parent company sued over data breach with 400,000 customers exposed
  C
• T
  The Rio TimesBrazil Election Results 2026: Runoff Live Count, October 25
  C
• g
  gCaptainSri Lanka Rescues 40 Iranian Sailors
  C
• K
  Korea JoongAng DailyKim Jong-un highlights North Korea-China ties in message to Trump
  B

In an interview with Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures on Oct 25, President Trump said, 'I have a decision to make: Do I finish it off, which would be very easy to do, or do I make a deal? That's all,' adding, 'We don't play games' (Bloomberg, The National). Asked by reporters the same day whether he would strike, he said, 'No. There will not be a strike today' (AP, Ynetnews). According to Ynetnews, he pushed back on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claims that Iran has resumed nuclear work, saying U.S. intelligence shows little activity: 'We know exactly what's going on at Pickaxe Mountain. We know the other three are obliterated.' Bloomberg reported that the administration has sent a third carrier strike group toward the Persian Gulf and is weighing whether to resume strikes after the Nov 3 midterms, while officials still see a negotiated settlement as the most likely outcome. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told a German broadcaster that 'Tehran has not closed the window of diplomacy' and that messages are being passed to Washington through intermediaries, but said the U.S. 'appears to persist in making unilateral demands' and keeps invoking 'complete surrender,' which no Iranian accepts (AP, The Times of Israel). Netanyahu warned that Iran or its proxies could try to disrupt Israel's Tuesday election: 'Don't test us. You will suffer disproportionate blows' (CBS News, AP). HELIOS found no CENTCOM, Pentagon or White House announcement of a strike on Iranian territory during the window.

• Indicators to watch · CENTCOM or Pentagon announcements on Iran; the arrival of a third carrier group in the Gulf; what Qatar and other mediators say about message traffic; any Iranian or proxy attack around Israel's Oct 27 election; oil futures when trading resumes Sunday evening

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Sunday, Oct 25, that the group 'conducted three military operations with dozens of ballistic missiles,' claiming the strike on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport 'achieved its target,' and said it also hit King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait and a Saudi border guard naval base in Jizan (Reuters via RTÉ). Saudi authorities did not confirm any hits on the three sites. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile and two drones aimed at Riyadh, a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait and 10 ballistic missiles fired toward the south, and debris injured two people in Khamis Mushait and Ahad Rafidah (Reuters, SBS News). The airport reopened Terminal 1 for domestic flights and Terminal 2 for national carriers' international flights the same day, but Flightradar24 showed only a small number of departures, with the vast majority of flights canceled, AFP reported; Saree warned airlines that the airport 'is unsafe and serves as a military target' (AFP via The Manila Times). SBS News said Saudia and flynas operated flights. On Saturday, the Houthis claimed attacks on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, an airport in Najran, an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery, crude pumping stations and the East-West Pipeline; the coalition said only that it responded to falling debris near oil sites, and Reuters said a satellite image showed smoke rising from an Aramco distribution center, though Saudi Arabia has not confirmed an attack (Reuters via ABC Australia). Yemen's government said the Houthis fired two ballistic missiles at Aden's airport late Saturday, the fourth such attack in October (KUNA via Kuwait Times). AP also reported that the Houthis fired drones and missiles at Riyadh despite the reopening.

• Indicators to watch · GACA or Saudi Press Agency statements on actual operations; whether foreign carriers resume Riyadh service; Aramco notices on Yanbu and Rabigh operations; coalition interception reports and damage statements

• B2Goldman cuts its 12-month Kospi target to 9,000 from 12,000 but still sees more than 60% upsideStrategists including Timothy Moe cited AI-spending worries and more conservative valuation assumptions, writing that 'the market is pricing an overly negative fundamental outlook' and that chip valuations imply a 65% collapse in 2027 sector earnings, which they consider too pessimistic (investingLive, Herald Economy). SK Hynix reports Oct 28 and Samsung Electronics Oct 29 (Money Today).

• B2Hack of a Lotte-affiliated gift-card service in South Korea exposes refund bank account numbersSpoon, a subsidiary of Lotte's Daehong Communications that runs the Giftiel mobile gift-card service, said Oct 25 that unauthorized access confirmed Oct 22 exposed some customers' names, phone numbers, emails and refund account numbers; it blocked the attacking IP, reported the incident to authorities and warned customers about phishing (Asia Economy).

Intelligence gaps · unconfirmed

• Price conflict: Some market sites put Brent's Oct 23 settlement at $116.72 and its Oct 25 price at $117.38, well above the collected $111.70. This round's collected data left oil, gold and silver changes blank, so HELIOS did not cite percentage moves for them. Futures that reopen at 6 p.m. ET Sunday fall after the window.
• Houthi claims: The claimed hit on Riyadh's airport, the attack on the Jizan naval base and Saturday's claimed strikes on Aramco's Yanbu facility, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline have not been confirmed by Saudi Arabia or independent sources. HELIOS could not establish when the satellite image of smoke at an Aramco distribution center was taken or who provided it. Reuters (one ballistic missile and two drones toward Riyadh, 10 toward the south, among others) and AFP ('at least 10 ballistic missiles') count interceptions differently.
• Riyadh flights: AFP said Flightradar24 showed a small number of departures and Reuters described minimal traffic, but HELIOS found no GACA or Saudi Press Agency statement that scheduled flights operated. AP put the Oct 10 airport attack toll at 17 dead and more than 330 wounded; Reuters put the death toll at 13.
• U.S. staffing: HELIOS could not confirm which posts and how many people are covered by the widened staffing cuts that Bloomberg and The National reported.
• Serbia: Official results are not yet out; seat figures are Vucic's sample-based projection. A report citing an Ipsos/CeSID sample (138 seats for the Student List, 104 for the ruling party) could not be opened and was left out.
• Brazil: Only 0.25% of polling stations had been counted when the window closed. The Rio Times alone reported that voting was extended in some states because of transport problems; HELIOS could not confirm it.
• Ukraine: ABC News counted at least four dead from the Oct 24–25 strikes, while the Kyiv Independent figure cited last edition was eight dead over a day, reflecting different counting periods. The '24 Patriot interceptors in three months' figure is Zelenskyy's; HELIOS found no U.S. government response. Russia's claim of more than 532 drones downed is unverified.
• GMO: The attacker's identity and entry point have not been disclosed, and the AI-tools explanation is the CEO's view. HELIOS did not find a Japanese government reply and could not open reports of a Financial Services Agency notice to FX firms.
• Venezuela: A BBC report that opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned could not be opened or confirmed elsewhere and was left out.
• Pending grades: 'riyadh-airport-reopens-oct31' appears to have happened, since AFP reported scheduled departures on Oct 25, but HELIOS has not seen explicit confirmation from the named sources (GACA, SPA, Reuters or AP). 'taiwan-champi-landfall-oct26' still appears not to have happened, as noted last edition; HELIOS did not see Taiwan's Central Weather Administration statement.